Patience is Power: Navigating Markets in Uncertain Times

Category
5 min read
Written by
Daniel Alfi
CEO
Published on
April 30, 2025
April 30, 2025

"Everybody has a plan ‘til they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

It’s one of those quotes that sticks because it’s true—not just in boxing, but in life and in investing. When markets are calm and the headlines are quiet, it’s easy to feel in control. You’re investing steadily and maybe even confidently choosing to run a little lean on your cash reserves so you can feel fully invested. 

Then, after a while of steady growth, the tariff headlines hit. Talking heads on TV panic about a shifting world order. You open your brokerage account and see red everywhere. 

You’ve heard market timing is bad, but you wonder: “Is it really timing the market if I just step out and re-enter when things settle down?”

The answer is yes–that’s exactly what timing the market is.

It’s completely natural—and human—to rethink your strategy when the world feels uncertain. And right now, there’s plenty to feel uneasy about: escalating U.S.–China trade tensions, rising barriers to global free trade, and early signals that the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the world’s reserve currency may be losing its hold. The market isn’t down for no reason, right?

Correct, but the market is never down for no reason. Market drops are always tied to real risks. 

When there is extreme fear in the markets, people tend to overreact, which often creates the best buying opportunities for long-term investors who stay the course. 

Infographic from https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” - Warren Buffett

So yes—we believe in ignoring the noise and resisting the urge to time the market. But here’s my warning:

Be prepared for things to get worse.

That’s not a prediction. I’m not calling for a crash in the near term—I don’t know where markets will be in 6 months or even 2 years. And I don’t believe anyone else does either. But if recent volatility has made you nervous, just know: the S&P 500 is still up 10% over the last year (as of April 29). 

That’s not pain—that’s noise. Things can get a lot worse than this. 

Patience is a virtue but it isn’t easy, especially considering that we believe the real test likely hasn’t come yet. Sticking to a long-term strategy means enduring far scarier, longer-lasting downturns.

That’s why I call this out. Many younger investors—especially those who started building wealth after the 2008 Great Recession—have only known markets that bounce back quickly. Even the COVID downturn gave us a fast, “V-shaped” recovery. But that’s not how every bear market works.

This long stretch of mostly uninterrupted gains may have created unrealistic expectations. And if people assume every dip will recover quickly, they may abandon their strategy at the worst possible time—when true patience can benefit them the most.

Bear markets can last years.

After the 2007 peak, it took the S&P 500 over five years to fully recover. But those who stuck to their plan were rewarded—not because they timed the bottom, but because they stayed in through it all.

Infographic from Vanguard "A Timeline of Bull and Bear Markets" 
Infographic from Vanguard "A Timeline of Bull and Bear Markets" 

So here’s where I’ll leave you:

I’m a staunch believer in putting money you don’t need anytime soon into the market. But remember: the long term is measured in decades. Staying invested through the hard parts is the simple—but not easy—path to building real wealth.

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